Median Prices Can be Noise

Fairfax County Median Prices went up 20.74% over the first six months of 2026.

It sounds good, but it’s not what it appears. It doesn’t mean the value of our homes went up 20.74%.

The concept of Fairfax County median prices assumes Fairfax County is one market. It isn’t.  There are dozens of markets operating  within the county.

For example, a buyer looking for a 1,300-square-foot rambler typically isn't also looking for a 3,500-square-foot colonial. They have different buyers, different sellers, different demand and different supply. There isn’t a better way to describe two different markets.

That’s why over the first six months, 1,300 square foot homes appreciated at 2.89% while 3,500 square foot homes appreciated at 13.46%. The table below, which was taken directly from the MLS, shows that perfectly.

If no segment of the market’s median prices increased anywhere near 20.74%, how is it possible that the whole market increased 20.74%.

That’s an issue with median prices. Although they’re the undisputed best statistic to measure a real estate market, there is an inherent problem with them.

The median price is the midpoint of all the sales. During the first six months of 2026, a larger share of sales occurred in higher-priced homes. As the mix of sales shifted upward, the countywide median increased much more than the median within any individual size category.". That moved the midpoint of all sales higher and made median prices for the whole higher than any segment.

The medium price for the county tells us how the overall Fairfax County market performed, and that the market for larger homes is stronger than the market for smaller homes.

The Signal in the Noise

The countywide median price tells us what happened to Fairfax County. It doesn't tell us what happened to your home. To answer that question, we need to look at the segment of the market

that your home is in. That's the signal. The overall county statistic is just noise when it comes to valuing any specific home.